• 

  40%

  +0.5%

  Framework Gains Traction

  The U.S. framework becomes the basis for serious negotiations among Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and key EU states. This is the most likely path because Kyiv has already accepted Russian security guarantees in principle, while Washington is trying to convert bilateral assurances into a broader European settlement.

  Energy −0.8% · Industrials −0.6% · Finance +0.6%

• 

  25%

  −0.4%

  Talks Stall Temporarily

  Negotiations continue but slow over enforcement language, sanctions sequencing, and the status of occupied territory. This outcome is plausible because the headline signals a U.S. framework rather than a signed deal, and each side still has incentives to preserve leverage.

  Industrials +0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2% · Energy +0.2%

• 

  20%

  +0.1%

  Europe Rearms Anyway

  The security architecture evolves into a long-term European rearmament and burden-sharing package, even if the Ukraine war cools. This reflects the post-2022 consensus that Europe will not return to prewar defense assumptions, especially after Finland joined NATO and Ukraine remains outside formal Article 5 protection.

  Industrials +1.2% · Non-Energy Materials +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.1%

• 

  15%

  −1.5%

  Framework Breaks Down

  The U.S. proposal fails to bridge core disputes over territory, force posture, and enforcement, leading to renewed military risk. This is less likely than continued diplomacy, but the war’s history shows that security guarantees and neutrality language can collapse over implementation details.

  Energy +2.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.8% · Industrials +1.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.