Possible scenario
Framework Gains Traction
+0.5%
The U.S. framework becomes the basis for serious negotiations among Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and key EU states. This is the most likely path because Kyiv has already accepted Russian security guarantees in principle, while Washington is trying to convert bilateral assurances into a broader European settlement.
What it moves
- Energy−0.8%
- Industrials−0.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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