Possible scenario
Framework Breaks Down
−1.5%
The U.S. proposal fails to bridge core disputes over territory, force posture, and enforcement, leading to renewed military risk. This is less likely than continued diplomacy, but the war’s history shows that security guarantees and neutrality language can collapse over implementation details.
What it moves
- Energy+2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals−1.8%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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