• 

  45%

  −0.2%

  Ambiguity Persists

  The most likely outcome is that the Kremlin’s statement reflects a real lack of agreed detail rather than a tactical surprise. Washington continues to advertise a broad peace concept, but Moscow, Kyiv, Brussels, and NATO remain far apart on Donbas, sanctions, security guarantees, and the proposed security zone.

  Industrials +0.2%

• 

  25%

  +0.6%

  Negotiations Revive

  Trump’s team may still be preparing a more concrete framework and the Kremlin’s denial could be an attempt to shape terms before formal talks. A limited diplomatic channel becomes more credible if Washington circulates a written text and secures Ukrainian and European participation.

  Finance +0.5% · Non-Energy Materials +0.4% · Energy −0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.5%

  Maximalism Derails Talks

  Moscow may use the confusion around Trump’s plan to restate demands for all of Donbas and a broad security zone inside Ukraine. Kyiv and European governments would reject those conditions, making the advertised Putin-Zelenskyy meeting unlikely.

  Industrials +0.5% · Energy +0.3% · Finance −0.2%

• 

  10%

  −0.1%

  Western Split Widens

  A smaller but important risk is that the dispute shifts from Moscow-Washington ambiguity to a visible split between Trump, Kyiv, and European governments. If the U.S. proposal is seen as pressuring Ukraine into concessions, Europe could accelerate independent aid and defense commitments.

  Industrials +0.3% · Energy −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.