Ambiguity Persists

The most likely outcome is that the Kremlin’s statement reflects a real lack of agreed detail rather than a tactical surprise. Washington continues to advertise a broad peace concept, but Moscow, Kyiv, Brussels, and NATO remain far apart on Donbas, sanctions, security guarantees, and the proposed security zone.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.