• 

  42%

  −0.1%

  Procedural Talks Continue

  The most likely path is that the Abu Dhabi meeting produces a formal channel, agenda items, and follow-on meetings but no substantive ceasefire terms. Budanov leading Ukraine’s delegation signals seriousness on security issues, while Vladimir Medinsky’s role suggests Moscow may prioritize political theater and maximalist framing.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  24%

  +0.5%

  Limited Confidence Measures

  The talks produce narrow, practical agreements short of a ceasefire. This is plausible because all parties may want to demonstrate diplomatic progress without resolving the hardest issues of territory, sanctions, and long-term security guarantees.

  Industrials +0.7% · Finance +0.3% · Utilities +0.2%

• 

  22%

  +0.9%

  Ceasefire Framework Emerges

  A less likely but market-moving outcome is that the parties outline a provisional ceasefire or sequencing framework. Budanov’s role could help Kyiv negotiate military and intelligence verification details, while the US may press both sides toward a testable pause in fighting.

  Industrials +0.9% · Energy −0.8% · Finance +0.7%

• 

  12%

  −1.2%

  Talks Break Down

  The least likely but most negative near-term path is an overt collapse of the process. Budanov’s hardline reputation and Medinsky’s past role in Russian negotiating positions could make compromise difficult if Moscow demands recognition of annexations or Kyiv insists on full withdrawal first.

  Energy +1.2% · Finance −0.4% · Industrials −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.