• 

  40%

  +0.2%

  Framework Gets Revised

  Washington and major European governments treat Zelenskyy’s warning as a negotiating red line rather than a rejection of diplomacy. The proposed architecture is revised to state that no European-Russian arrangement can limit Ukraine’s defense choices without Kyiv’s consent.

  Finance +0.4% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.5%

  Allies Delay Plan

  Central and Eastern European governments side with Kyiv and argue the framework risks legitimizing Russian spheres of influence. The U.S. does not abandon the idea, but formal European endorsement is delayed while NATO consultations expand.

  Industrials +0.9% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5% · Finance −0.3%

• 

  20%

  +0.1%

  Washington Presses Ahead

  The White House decides the framework is the best path to a ceasefire track and continues direct diplomacy with Moscow. Kyiv remains formally consulted, but Zelenskyy’s objections do not stop U.S.-Russia technical discussions.

  Energy −0.4% · Technology −0.3% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  15%

  −0.9%

  Russia Tests Resolve

  Moscow uses the debate over European security architecture to test Western unity and improve its bargaining position. This scenario has the highest near-term market stress because diplomacy is paired with visible military pressure.

  Industrials +1.4% · Finance −1.0% · Energy +0.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.