Possible scenario
Washington Presses Ahead
+0.1%
The White House decides the framework is the best path to a ceasefire track and continues direct diplomacy with Moscow. Kyiv remains formally consulted, but Zelenskyy’s objections do not stop U.S.-Russia technical discussions.
What it moves
- Energy−0.4%
- Technology−0.3%
- Oil prices
- US dollar
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.