• 

  45%

  +0.1%

  Orderly DOJ Transition

  The most likely path is a managed handoff in which Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche or senior DOJ leadership appoints an acting head for the National Security Division. The Iran leak inquiries and politically sensitive investigations continue, but the department avoids a broader rupture.

• 

  25%

  0.0%

  Investigations Lose Momentum

  Eisenberg’s departure, combined with the Miami U.S. attorney resignation, may reflect operational or legal friction over sensitive national security matters. In this scenario, senior career officials slow-roll or narrow the most controversial cases to reduce procedural risk.

• 

  20%

  −0.1%

  Oversight Fight Expands

  Congressional Democrats and some Republicans could use the resignation to probe whether DOJ leadership politicized national security investigations. This path creates a public oversight fight but remains more institutional than market-moving.

• 

  10%

  −0.2%

  Hard-Line Successor

  A less likely but consequential path is that the administration treats Eisenberg’s exit as an opportunity to install a more aggressive national security leader. That successor accelerates leak probes and investigations of Trump adversaries, increasing institutional and legal confrontation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.