Sustained Air Campaign

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russia continues large missile and drone salvos against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure while Ukraine remains short of Patriot interceptors. The most likely near-term path is more damage and civilian casualties, but no immediate NATO entry into the conflict.

What it moves

Industrials+0.5%
Utilities−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?