• 

  45%

  +0.1%

  Trump Survives Revolt

  Trump refuses to resign and enough Republican elected officials conclude that trying to force him out would fracture the party further. The White House frames the House loss as a candidate-quality and turnout problem rather than a Trump mandate rejection.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.2% · Finance +0.1% · Technology +0.1%

• 

  25%

  −0.2%

  Bounded GOP Break

  A meaningful minority of Republicans publicly breaks with Trump, but the revolt stops short of the votes or institutional support needed to remove him. Markets treat the development as political dysfunction rather than an immediate succession crisis.

  Finance −0.2% · Technology −0.2% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −1.1%

  Removal Talk Escalates

  The resignation push becomes a broader removal conversation involving Democrats, Republican defectors, and constitutional options. Actual removal remains unlikely, but the probability of a governing crisis rises enough to affect risk assets.

  Finance −1.4% · Technology −1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.2%

• 

  10%

  −0.4%

  Vance Succession

  Trump resigns or agrees to a transition under overwhelming party pressure, making JD Vance president. This remains a low-probability outcome because Trump has strong incentives to resist and retain his base, but the House loss and 30% approval create a plausible tail risk.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.6% · Finance −0.5% · Technology −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.