Vance Succession

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Trump resigns or agrees to a transition under overwhelming party pressure, making JD Vance president. This remains a low-probability outcome because Trump has strong incentives to resist and retain his base, but the House loss and 30% approval create a plausible tail risk.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.6%
Finance−0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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