• 

  35%

  0.0%

  Bridge Via Allies

  Ukraine and the U.S. use allied transfers, swaps, and emergency drawdowns to cover the gap before the newly approved 500-missile order arrives after 2030. This is the most likely path because Washington has already cleared the sale but production constraints make near-term inventory sharing the only practical solution.

  Industrials +0.6%

• 

  30%

  0.0%

  Bottleneck Persists

  The cleared sale proceeds, but production of PAC-3 interceptors remains constrained by solid-rocket motors, seekers, electronics, and competing U.S. and allied orders. Ukraine receives contractual certainty but not near-term battlefield relief.

  Industrials +0.5% · Non-Energy Materials +0.1%

• 

  20%

  −0.1%

  War Trajectory Changes

  The importance of the post-2030 Patriot order changes depending on the battlefield and diplomacy. A ceasefire would reduce immediate urgency, while intensified Russian missile campaigns would make the delay more consequential.

  Industrials +0.4%

• 

  15%

  0.0%

  Europe Diversifies Defenses

  Europe responds to the Patriot bottleneck by expanding non-U.S. air-defense procurement and financing Ukraine-specific production. This would not replace Patriot for ballistic-missile defense, but it could reduce pressure on U.S. inventories.

  Industrials +0.5%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.