• 

  45%

  −0.1%

  Contained Grid Attrition

  Russia continues missile and drone strikes against substations and thermal power assets, but Ukraine prevents a nationwide grid collapse through rolling repairs, imports, and rationing. Kyiv remains politically exposed because recent failures are concentrated around the capital, but the military and macro-financial trajectory of the war does not sharply change.

  Utilities −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  25%

  0.0%

  Air Defense Response

  The strikes accelerate Western air-defense and grid-support packages rather than causing a major market-moving escalation. Ukraine receives more interceptors, mobile generators, high-voltage transformers, and financing from the EU, Germany, the United States, and the World Bank.

  Industrials +0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.4%

  Severe Winter Escalation

  Russia widens the campaign from Kyiv and seven affected regions to a more systematic effort to break Ukraine’s winter electricity supply. This remains below a NATO-Russia confrontation, but the humanitarian and economic consequences become more serious and create a clearer risk-off impulse.

  Utilities −0.6% · Industrials +0.5% · Non-Energy Materials −0.2%

• 

  10%

  −0.2%

  Retaliation Cycle Broadens

  Ukraine responds to the grid attacks with longer-range strikes against Russian energy logistics, air bases, or missile-support infrastructure. The cycle raises near-term commodity and volatility risk, though it remains far from a systemic global crisis unless NATO territory is hit.

  Industrials +0.4% · Energy +0.3% · Utilities −0.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.