Contained Grid Attrition

Russia continues missile and drone strikes against substations and thermal power assets, but Ukraine prevents a nationwide grid collapse through rolling repairs, imports, and rationing. Kyiv remains politically exposed because recent failures are concentrated around the capital, but the military and macro-financial trajectory of the war does not sharply change.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.