• 

  40%

  −0.5%

  Contained Border Escalation

  The most likely path is a limited military exchange in which the Houthis continue missile and drone launches while Saudi Arabia avoids a major ground or air campaign. Riyadh keeps the ceasefire offer formally open but responds with targeted strikes and expanded air-defense deployments.

  Energy +1.0% · Consumer Services −0.7% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  25%

  +0.6%

  Ceasefire Track Revives

  The missile claims could be followed by renewed mediation from Oman, the UN, and possibly Iran to prevent a wider Saudi-Houthi confrontation. This outcome is plausible because Riyadh has already offered a ceasefire deal and Tehran has an interest in avoiding a direct Saudi-Iranian rupture.

  Energy −0.9% · Consumer Services +0.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  20%

  −1.1%

  Retaliation Cycle Widens

  Saudi Arabia and its partners could conclude that restraint is failing and expand strikes against Houthi missile infrastructure. This would likely provoke further Houthi launches at Saudi cities, airbases, and possibly energy-adjacent targets.

  Energy +1.8% · Industrials +1.3% · Consumer Services −1.3%

• 

  15%

  −1.7%

  Oil And Shipping Shock

  A lower-probability but higher-impact outcome is that the Houthis expand from military targets to Saudi energy infrastructure or Red Sea shipping. Even limited damage could produce a sharp near-term repricing because Saudi Arabia remains central to global spare oil capacity.

  Energy +3.3% · Consumer Services −2.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.0%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.