Retaliation Cycle Widens

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Saudi Arabia and its partners could conclude that restraint is failing and expand strikes against Houthi missile infrastructure. This would likely provoke further Houthi launches at Saudi cities, airbases, and possibly energy-adjacent targets.

What it moves

Energy+1.8%
Industrials+1.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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