• 

  38%

  +0.3%

  Precautionary Posture Holds

  The most likely near-term outcome is that the U.S. base drawdowns and reported aircraft movements are precautionary force-protection measures rather than a prelude to imminent combat. Iran and the Houthis may keep threatening U.S. and Gulf assets, but both sides avoid an immediate direct strike.

  Industrials −0.4% · Consumer Services +0.3% · Energy −0.2%

• 

  27%

  −1.2%

  Proxy Pressure Escalates

  Iran avoids an overt missile strike from its own territory, but Houthi or aligned militia activity increases against shipping, drones, or regional U.S. logistics. This keeps escalation below the threshold of a direct U.S.-Iran exchange while still disrupting energy and trade risk pricing.

  Energy +2.2% · Consumer Services −1.0% · Industrials −0.8%

• 

  23%

  −2.4%

  Direct Strike Cycle

  A less likely but highly consequential path is that Iran directly targets U.S. or Gulf facilities, similar to earlier 2026 attacks. The U.S. would probably respond with limited strikes on IRGC, missile, or Houthi assets while trying to avoid a declared regional war.

  Energy +5.1% · Consumer Services −4.1% · Technology −3.4%

• 

  12%

  +1.0%

  Diplomatic De-escalation

  A lower-probability positive path is that Gulf intermediaries secure a temporary restraint understanding among Iran, the Houthis, and the U.S. This would reduce immediate fears around U.S. bases and Red Sea shipping, pulling down oil and volatility risk premia.

  Energy −1.9% · Consumer Services +1.9% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.