Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
+1.0%
A lower-probability positive path is that Gulf intermediaries secure a temporary restraint understanding among Iran, the Houthis, and the U.S. This would reduce immediate fears around U.S. bases and Red Sea shipping, pulling down oil and volatility risk premia.
What it moves
- Energy−1.9%
- Consumer Services+1.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
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