• 

  38%+0.2%

  Damage Proves Contained

  Saudi Aramco and Saudi energy officials indicate the Ras Tanura damage is localized, with export operations largely maintained through storage and rerouting. Oil retains some geopolitical premium, but the market begins to price a repair timeline rather than a lasting supply outage.

  Energy −0.5% · Industrials +0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  30%−1.0%

  Strikes Continue

  The Houthis attempt follow-on attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure, keeping crude markets focused on supply security rather than repair estimates. Even if many projectiles are intercepted, repeated strikes sustain a geopolitical premium in Brent and WTI.

  Energy +2.2% · Consumer Services −1.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.3%

• 

  17%−1.4%

  Military Escalation

  Washington and Riyadh respond more forcefully to repeated attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, increasing the military dimension of the crisis. Markets focus on whether the conflict remains confined to Yemen or draws in Iran-linked assets around the Gulf.

  Energy +2.8% · Consumer Services −2.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.2%

• 

  15%+0.9%

  Stabilization Push

  Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the U.S., and mediators move quickly to prevent a sustained oil shock. Additional supply assurances, repair transparency, and diplomatic channels reduce the immediate risk premium in crude.

  Energy −1.7% · Consumer Services +1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.