• 

  45%−0.4%

  Deterrence Holds

  The most likely path is that Beijing intensifies military and coast guard pressure but avoids a force-on-force crisis before the 2027 PLA milestone. U.S. Army Pacific expands dispersed logistics, air defense, and prepositioning while Taiwan accelerates asymmetric defense purchases.

  Industrials +1.0% · Technology −0.7%

• 

  25%−2.0%

  Quarantine Short Of War

  Beijing could choose a coercive maritime quarantine rather than a full invasion, using customs, coast guard, and naval assets to test U.S. and Taiwanese responses. This path is plausible because it pressures Taipei while preserving some deniability and limiting immediate combat risk.

  Technology −3.1% · Industrials +1.2% · Finance −0.9%

• 

  15%−6.2%

  Kinetic Seizure Attempt

  A direct kinetic move remains a lower-probability but high-impact path if Beijing concludes that deterrence is eroding or Taiwan is moving irreversibly away from unification. The most realistic initial form is a limited seizure or strike campaign rather than an immediate full-island occupation.

  Technology −9.1% · Consumer Cyclicals −4.9% · Finance −3.2%

• 

  15%+1.1%

  Diplomacy Stabilizes

  A less confrontational path emerges if both governments decide the costs of miscalculation are too high before China’s 2027 military benchmark. This would not settle Taiwan’s status but could reduce near-term crisis risk and support risk assets tied to Asian supply chains.

  Technology +1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.0% · Industrials +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.