Deterrence Holds

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that Beijing intensifies military and coast guard pressure but avoids a force-on-force crisis before the 2027 PLA milestone. U.S. Army Pacific expands dispersed logistics, air defense, and prepositioning while Taiwan accelerates asymmetric defense purchases.

What it moves

Industrials+1.0%
Technology−0.7%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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