Possible scenario
Kinetic Seizure Attempt
15%
−6.2%
A direct kinetic move remains a lower-probability but high-impact path if Beijing concludes that deterrence is eroding or Taiwan is moving irreversibly away from unification. The most realistic initial form is a limited seizure or strike campaign rather than an immediate full-island occupation.
What it moves
- Technology−9.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals−4.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
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