• 

  

  38%−0.1%

  Managed Stalemate

  Canada and the United States avoid a formal collapse in talks, but Ottawa refuses to sign the current U.S. offer. This is the most likely path because Carney has repeatedly signaled willingness to negotiate while warning against accepting a lopsided deal.

  Non-Energy Materials −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  

  32%+0.7%

  Narrow Compromise

  Both governments decide the economic cost of prolonged uncertainty is too high and strike a partial agreement. A narrow deal is plausible because the two economies remain deeply integrated in autos, energy, metals, agriculture, and rail logistics.

  Consumer Cyclicals +1.8% · Industrials +1.3% · Non-Energy Materials +1.3%

• 

  

  20%−1.6%

  Breakdown Escalates

  The trade process deteriorates after Ottawa refuses to accept the U.S. terms. This is less likely than continued talks, but Carney’s warning that Washington is trying to break Canada points to a real risk of confrontation.

  Non-Energy Materials −2.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.6% · Industrials −2.3%

• 

  

  10%+0.2%

  Canada Diversifies

  Canada responds to U.S. pressure by deepening trade, energy, defense, and critical-minerals ties with Europe and Asia. This does not solve the U.S. tariff problem quickly, but it gives Ottawa a political and strategic alternative to a bad deal.

  Non-Energy Materials +1.0% · Energy +0.6% · Industrials +0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.