Possible scenario
Managed Stalemate
38%
−0.1%
Canada and the United States avoid a formal collapse in talks, but Ottawa refuses to sign the current U.S. offer. This is the most likely path because Carney has repeatedly signaled willingness to negotiate while warning against accepting a lopsided deal.
What it moves
- Non-Energy Materials−0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.3%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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