Possible scenario
Breakdown Escalates
20%
−1.6%
The trade process deteriorates after Ottawa refuses to accept the U.S. terms. This is less likely than continued talks, but Carney’s warning that Washington is trying to break Canada points to a real risk of confrontation.
What it moves
- Non-Energy Materials−2.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals−2.6%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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