Vance Tells Top Iranian Official Talks to Avert US Strikes Must Address Nuclear Program

87%est.−7.5%

Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Restricted Hormuz throughput creates a stagflation shock: the broad equity market falls 7%, erasing $6.72T over 20 days as energy, freight and financing costs rise while growth weakens. Energy gains 3.7%, but Consumer Cyclicals lose 9.5% and Technology loses 8.8%, because producers benefit from scarcity while energy users and growth-sensitive assets absorb higher costs and lower valuations.

Consumer Cyclicals −9.5% · Technology −8.8% · Industrials −7.8%

13%est.−12.8%

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

A near-total halt in Strait of Hormuz energy traffic produces a stagflationary shock: the broad equity market falls 12%, erasing $11.5 trillion over 20 days. Expensive energy, freight and financing punish technology and consumer-sensitive businesses, while energy gains 5.3% as higher oil and LNG realizations outweigh the wider selloff.

2%est.+4.3%

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement

Sustained Hormuz transit normalization lifts the broad equity market 4%, adding $3.84T as cheaper energy, shipping and credit support risk appetite. Energy loses pricing support, while technology and fuel-importing utilities benefit from lower costs and easier financial conditions.

Consumer Cyclicals +5.3% · Technology +5.2% · Non-Energy Materials +4.4%

87%est.−7.5%

Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Consumer Cyclicals −9.5% · Technology −8.8% · Industrials −7.8%

The crowd, on a related question

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by

100%No

Oct 31

95%No

Nov 30

89%No

Dec 31

Polymarket, read on the No side of a related question.

13%est.−12.8%

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

The crowd, on a related question

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by

100%No

Oct 31

95%No

Nov 30

89%No

Dec 31

Polymarket, read on the No side of a related question.

2%est.+4.3%

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement

Consumer Cyclicals +5.3% · Technology +5.2% · Non-Energy Materials +4.4%

The crowd, on a related question

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal, by

Oct 31

Nov 30

12%

Dec 31

Polymarket, a related question.

Vance Tells Top Iranian Official Talks to Avert US Strikes Must Address Nuclear Program

3 ways this could read

Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement

3 ways this could read

Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement

Looking for more context or analysis?

Strait of Hormuz intermittent restricted throughput

Strait of Hormuz commercial energy transit cessation

Sustained Strait of Hormuz commercial-transit normalization without political settlement