Military preparation has been hampered by Xi's anti-corruption campaign and a strategic preference to await the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 election, which Beijing hopes may produce a more agreeable government. US officials also believe China has analyzed the wars in Ukraine and Iran to conclude that any potential operation would need to be rapid to avoid a prolonged and costly stalemate.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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US Finds Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Unlikely Before 2028
Geopolitics20 days ago
Internal delays in China's military readiness have pushed the likely window for a Taiwan invasion beyond 2027, US officials assess. This conclusion persists even though President Xi Jinping previously ordered the People's Liberation Army to be capable of seizing the island by force by that year. Current US intelligence indicates that an attack is unlikely to occur before 2028.
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