Possible scenario
Coercion Below War
20% Chance
China rejects the U.S. assessment publicly and uses military exercises, cyber operations, and maritime law enforcement to signal that it still controls escalation. The actions remain below the threshold of invasion but keep a geopolitical risk premium in Asia-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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