Possible scenario
Aid Politics Dominate
25% Chance
The central risk shifts from a near-term Chinese invasion to U.S. policy credibility after Trump withholds expiring Taiwan military aid. Markets focus on whether Congress, the Pentagon, and Taipei can preserve deterrence despite White House hesitation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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