Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
Washington's intelligence judgment proves broadly correct: Beijing keeps military pressure on Taiwan but avoids an invasion before 2028. Xi Jinping preserves coercive leverage while avoiding the economic and military risks of a cross-strait war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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