• 

  45%

  −0.4%

  Contained Oil Disruption

  Iranian pressure on Gulf shipping persists, but flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not broadly halted. Markets price a durable risk premium as insurers, shipowners, and refiners assume roughly 1 million barrels per day of intermittent losses.

  Energy +1.9% · Consumer Services −1.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.7%

• 

  25%

  +0.5%

  Naval De-Escalation

  The United States, Gulf Arab states, and European navies move quickly to protect oil-transfer routes and reduce the perceived probability of a broader supply shock. Crude gives back part of the geopolitical premium while fuel-sensitive equities recover.

  Energy −1.7% · Consumer Services +1.6% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%

• 

  20%

  −1.8%

  Wider Gulf Escalation

  Iran-linked attacks intensify or trigger direct military responses, moving the market beyond Goldman’s base case. This would be treated as a material geopolitical escalation, pushing crude sharply higher and risk assets lower in the first trading sessions.

  Energy +4.3% · Consumer Services −3.5% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.8%

• 

  10%

  −0.3%

  Offsets Dominate Pricing

  The physical disruption is real, but softer demand, inventory draws, and non-Gulf supply prevent the crude market from sustaining a large rally. Traders focus on whether refined products, rather than crude, become the more acute bottleneck.

  Industrials −0.7% · Non-Energy Materials −0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.