• 

  45%−0.4%

  Contained Brinkmanship

  Washington and Tehran keep rhetoric elevated, but neither side initiates a direct attack. Oil retains a geopolitical premium because Iranian exports remain blocked and Gulf shipping risks stay visible.

  Energy +2.0% · Consumer Services −0.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  25%−1.7%

  Limited Gulf Escalation

  A new maritime or proxy incident raises the probability of direct U.S.-Iran confrontation but stops short of full war. Oil jumps further and risk assets weaken as investors price higher transport and energy costs.

  Energy +4.2% · Consumer Services −2.7% · Technology −1.1%

• 

  20%+1.2%

  Diplomatic De-Escalation

  Regional intermediaries move quickly to prevent another war, and both sides signal they want to preserve the April cease-fire. The oil risk premium partially unwinds and risk sentiment improves.

  Energy −2.5% · Consumer Services +2.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%

• 

  10%−4.7%

  Severe Confrontation

  A direct attack on U.S. personnel or a major disruption to Gulf shipping pushes the crisis toward open conflict. Markets react with a sharp oil spike, flight-to-safety buying, wider credit spreads, and losses in travel and cyclical sectors.

  Energy +8.1% · Consumer Services −7.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −5.8%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.