Contained Brinkmanship

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Washington and Tehran keep rhetoric elevated, but neither side initiates a direct attack. Oil retains a geopolitical premium because Iranian exports remain blocked and Gulf shipping risks stay visible.

What it moves

Energy+2.0%
Consumer Services−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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