• 

  45%+0.2%

  Contained Disruption

  Saudi Arabia contains the immediate damage to refineries, export terminals, and pipelines through redundancy, inventories, and emergency repairs. Brent remains elevated because Houthi strike capability is proven, but markets avoid pricing a sustained loss of Saudi export capacity.

  Consumer Services +0.2% · Industrials +0.2% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%

• 

  25%−1.0%

  Military Retaliation

  Saudi Arabia responds with airstrikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure, possibly with U.S. intelligence, air-defense, or naval support. The market focus shifts from repair timelines to escalation risk involving Iran-linked networks in Yemen, Iraq, and the Gulf.

  Energy +3.0% · Consumer Services −2.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.7%

• 

  20%+0.7%

  Diplomatic Stabilization

  Oman, the United States, and Gulf partners push for de-escalation while Saudi Arabia signals that repairs and inventories can cover near-term export commitments. Markets react positively if the attacks appear to pause and emergency supply coordination becomes credible.

  Consumer Services +1.9% · Energy −1.9% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%

• 

  10%−2.5%

  Severe Supply Shock

  A follow-on Houthi attack causes a materially larger outage at a major processing, pipeline, or export node, forcing Saudi Arabia to curtail exports despite inventories. This is less likely than containment but would carry the largest immediate market reaction because Saudi spare capacity is itself under attack.

  Energy +4.9% · Consumer Services −4.4% · Consumer Cyclicals −3.9%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.