A flow of 10 to 14 million bpd from the Middle East is necessary to stabilize markets and avoid further inventory depletion, according to Vitol CEO Russell Hardy. He estimates that 14 million bpd—comprised of 12 million bpd of crude and 2 million bpd of refined products—has left the region over the past 10 days, often without AIS tracking. Hardy noted the crisis has evolved from a crude shortage into a combined refining and shipping crisis, adding that current $100 prices assume these flows continue.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Oil CEOs Foresee $200 Brent Price After 400M Barrel Stock Drop
Commodities15 days ago
Shipping and refining disruptions have stripped the global energy market of its primary safety net, leaving prices vulnerable to any outage in the Persian Gulf. Global inventories have fallen by more than 400 million barrels since March, which causes CEOs of Vitol and Aramco to warn that Brent crude could hit $200 a barrel if Middle East outflows are interrupted. Aramco's Amin Nasser described current stocks as "scarily thin" and noted that the company's East-West pipeline has helped prevent such a price spike so far.
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