• 

  45%

  −0.4%

  Contained Hormuz Disruption

  Tanker attacks continue but remain limited enough that most crude and refined-product cargoes still transit the Strait of Hormuz. Naval escorts, higher insurance premiums, and rerouting delays keep Brent elevated without producing a full closure of the waterway.

  Energy +2.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.8% · Consumer Services −0.5%

• 

  25%

  +0.7%

  Naval Diplomatic Containment

  Oman, Qatar, and European governments push for a maritime deconfliction channel while the U.S. and partners increase patrols. A reduction in successful tanker attacks removes part of the geopolitical premium embedded in Brent.

  Energy −2.2% · Consumer Services +1.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%

• 

  20%

  −1.8%

  Major Strait Escalation

  A more severe tanker strike or military response causes insurers and shippers to suspend a meaningful share of Hormuz transits. Markets price a material short-term supply shock, pushing oil higher and raising cross-asset volatility.

  Energy +4.1% · Consumer Services −2.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −2.2%

• 

  10%

  0.0%

  Supply Workarounds Cushion

  Gulf producers and consuming countries offset part of the Hormuz disruption through pipelines, floating storage, and emergency inventory planning. These measures do not eliminate maritime risk, but they limit the immediate price reaction.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.4% · Energy −0.2% · Consumer Services +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.