• 

  40%

  −0.4%

  Demand Fears Extend

  The most likely path is a continuation of the selloff as traders focus on weakening China demand, Vitol’s call for a 3 million bpd global demand contraction, and the earlier OPEC+ output hike. Inventory draws may slow the decline, but the market reprices toward weaker end-demand.

  Energy −2.3% · Non-Energy Materials −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%

• 

  28%

  0.0%

  Oversold Rebound Forms

  A near-term rebound is plausible because the market just saw an unexpectedly large API crude draw and the daily selloff may have overshot fundamentals. Bargain buying by refiners, commodity funds, and physical users could stabilize prices above the low-$80s.

  Energy +1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

• 

  22%

  +0.1%

  OPEC Floor Emerges

  If WTI keeps sliding, Saudi Arabia and core OPEC+ producers may use verbal intervention to discourage expectations of another supply glut. A formal quota change is unlikely in the immediate 1-2 day window, but messaging alone could slow bearish momentum.

  Energy +0.3%

• 

  10%

  0.0%

  Supply Shock Reversal

  A less likely but material upside scenario is that geopolitical or operational supply disruptions quickly overwhelm demand concerns. Because the headline reflects a sharp selloff rather than a new supply event, this remains a tail scenario.

  Energy +2.3% · Consumer Services −0.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.