Independent analysis by Josh Young estimates recent flows in the Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP ecosystem at a 7-day average of 7.8M BPD, or approximately 64% of pre-war levels, though he suggests a sustainable baseline of 85% is possible. Analyst Rory Johnston noted that while recent flows are the highest of the war, the current structure is unsustainable and showing signs of wavering. French President Emmanuel Macron previously estimated that regional exports had returned to more than 75% of volumes seen before the conflict.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Analysts Call US Hormuz Flow Data Fake After Tanker Attacks
Commodities15 days ago
Energy Secretary Wright told CBS that crude oil supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to increase in recent weeks, supporting assertions by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that flows now exceed pre-war levels. However, analyst Philip Ilpilk claims the official data is "largely fake" and part of a failed US strategy to flood the strait with tankers to project normalcy. Ilpilk alleges that Iran has countered this effort by targeting those tankers, which he says have been "lit up" by Iranian fire control.
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