Possible scenario
Verification Calms Markets
25% Chance
Washington responds to the criticism by allowing outside verification of tanker movements through the Strait. Transparent flow reporting reduces the information premium in crude and lowers near-term volatility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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