Possible scenario
Data Credibility Breaks
45% Chance
Independent tracking firms such as Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com publish evidence that actual Strait of Hormuz flows are materially below U.S. government claims. The market reprices both physical supply risk and the credibility of official U.S. communication after the tanker attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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