• 

  40%

  +0.1%

  Managed Partial Disruption

  Hormuz tanker traffic remains far below normal, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some Iraqi volumes rely more heavily on bypass pipelines, storage draws and staggered sailings. This is the most likely path because shippers have already adjusted after repeated IRGC-claimed attacks, while Gulf producers have incentives to avoid a total export halt.

  Consumer Services +0.5% · Energy +0.4%

• 

  25%

  +0.6%

  Diplomatic Pause

  Oman and Qatar broker a limited stand-down between Iran-linked forces and Gulf shipping interests. The deal does not solve the underlying conflict, but even a temporary halt to tanker attacks would likely bring vessels back toward Hormuz quickly.

  Energy −1.7% · Consumer Services +1.3% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%

• 

  20%

  −2.2%

  Escalation Near Closure

  A fresh strike or mine incident convinces shipowners that Hormuz is unsafe without military escalation. This is less likely than a managed disruption, but the recent pattern of IRGC-claimed attacks makes a further escalation credible.

  Energy +4.5% · Consumer Services −3.2% · Industrials −3.0%

• 

  15%

  −0.7%

  Insurance Freight Squeeze

  Even if attacks do not intensify, insurers and shipowners may keep Hormuz capacity scarce because recent incidents raise operational and legal risk. This scenario creates a freight and insurance shock rather than an outright physical oil embargo.

  Energy +1.7% · Consumer Services −1.0% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals −0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.