Managed Partial Disruption

Hormuz tanker traffic remains far below normal, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some Iraqi volumes rely more heavily on bypass pipelines, storage draws and staggered sailings. This is the most likely path because shippers have already adjusted after repeated IRGC-claimed attacks, while Gulf producers have incentives to avoid a total export halt.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.