Escalation Near Closure
−2.2%
A fresh strike or mine incident convinces shipowners that Hormuz is unsafe without military escalation. This is less likely than a managed disruption, but the recent pattern of IRGC-claimed attacks makes a further escalation credible.
What it moves
- Energy+4.5%
- Consumer Services−3.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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