• 

  40%

  −0.9%

  Prolonged Disruption

  Iran-linked strikes and threat warnings keep owners, insurers, and charterers cautious even without a full closure. Crude flows remain materially below normal as shipowners demand higher freight rates and naval escorts cover only part of the traffic.

  Energy +2.3% · Consumer Services −1.4% · Industrials −1.1%

• 

  25%

  +0.2%

  Naval Stabilization

  The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf partners increase convoy protection and surveillance around the Strait. Flows recover part of the recent decline, though the security premium does not disappear entirely.

  Consumer Cyclicals +0.7% · Consumer Services +0.6% · Energy −0.4%

• 

  20%

  −2.2%

  Severe Escalation

  A direct hit on a tanker, naval asset, or port-adjacent loading route triggers a sharper security response and a temporary traffic halt. This is less likely than persistent disruption, but the downside is large because Hormuz remains the main outlet for Gulf crude exports.

  Energy +4.7% · Consumer Services −4.0% · Consumer Cyclicals −3.2%

• 

  15%

  +1.0%

  Diplomatic De-escalation

  Regional intermediaries secure a temporary reduction in attacks after oil buyers and Gulf states push for relief. Shipments rebound quickly from the two-month low, removing part of the geopolitical premium from crude.

  Consumer Services +2.4% · Energy −2.0% · Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.