Prolonged Disruption
−0.9%
Iran-linked strikes and threat warnings keep owners, insurers, and charterers cautious even without a full closure. Crude flows remain materially below normal as shipowners demand higher freight rates and naval escorts cover only part of the traffic.
What it moves
- Energy+2.3%
- Consumer Services−1.4%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.