Major Strait Escalation
−1.8%
A more severe tanker strike or military response causes insurers and shippers to suspend a meaningful share of Hormuz transits. Markets price a material short-term supply shock, pushing oil higher and raising cross-asset volatility.
What it moves
- Energy+4.1%
- Consumer Services−2.7%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.