Possible scenario
Supply Shock Worsens
20% Chance
The tight inventory backdrop turns into a physical supply shock as Gulf shipping disruptions intensify or export flows are interrupted. Brent moves closer to the $200 scenario discussed by oil executives, triggering stagflationary market stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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