• 

  42%−1.9%

  AI Capex Derating

  Investors treat Alphabet’s cash-flow deterioration as evidence that the AI infrastructure cycle is consuming capital faster than it is producing returns. The selloff remains concentrated in mega-cap technology, AI semiconductors, and cloud-linked names rather than becoming a full financial-system shock.

  Technology −2.9% · Telecommunications −1.0% · Business Services −0.5%

• 

  28%+0.9%

  Management Reassurance Stabilizes

  Alphabet and other hyperscalers try to calm investors by emphasizing spending discipline, utilization rates, and eventual monetization from AI search, cloud, and enterprise tools. This produces a short-term relief rally, though investors remain skeptical about the scale of future capex.

  Technology +1.4% · Telecommunications +0.3%

• 

  20%−1.5%

  Capex Cuts Reprice Suppliers

  Investors conclude that hyperscalers may protect cash flow by delaying data-center projects, creating a direct overhang for AI chip, networking, power, and cooling suppliers. The effect is more mixed for cloud platforms because lower capex could support free cash flow even as it slows infrastructure growth.

  Technology −2.2% · Industrials −0.7% · Utilities −0.6%

• 

  10%−1.3%

  Credit Spillover Emerges

  The equity selloff begins to affect perceptions of financing risk for companies funding large AI infrastructure plans with debt, leases, or long-term purchase commitments. The move remains contained, but credit investors demand slightly higher compensation for exposure to AI capex intensity.

  Technology −2.0% · Finance −0.6%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.