AI Capex Derating

42%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Investors treat Alphabet’s cash-flow deterioration as evidence that the AI infrastructure cycle is consuming capital faster than it is producing returns. The selloff remains concentrated in mega-cap technology, AI semiconductors, and cloud-linked names rather than becoming a full financial-system shock.

What it moves

Technology−2.9%
Telecommunications−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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